Haraldur Sigurðsson, volcanologist in Stykkishólmur, has repeated his estimation that the eruption at Holuhraun will end in the beginning of March. His estimation is based on a mathematical equation that he has put forward on the collapse in the caldera of Bárðarbunga. According to it, the collapse will end in the beginning of March, then the pressure in the magma chamber will reach a balance and it is likely that the eruption will come to an end.
„As I've previously talked about here, the collapse is on an ice cap, 800 metres thick, filling the caldera of Bárðarbunga, a direct result of the running magma from the magma chamber and into a magma tunnel, reaching more than 50 kilmetres to the north. The magma finally reaches the surface there at Holuhraun. The volcano that is now erupting is Bárðarbunga, even though the activity at the surface at Holuhraun has caught most of the attention, " Haraldur says in his volcano blog.
Haraldur shows us a diagram, revealing that Bárðarbunga has been incredibly regular since the beginning.
„The equation with the diagram shows that this is almost a clean line, with R2 = 0,99968. It doesn't get any better in the nature.“
According to the equation, the line will be horizontal in 160 days from the beginning of measuring there, on the 12th of September 2014. Then the collapse at Bárðarbunga will stop, or in the beginning of March 2015, Haraldur estimates.
„It is possible that the eruption will come to an end because the pressure in the magma chamber will reach a balance. All the blue dots are examinations of the collapse, unless the last one at day 160, I take the liberty of saying that the eruption will possibly end in March," Haraldur says.